Study of the changes recorded in the Sudestadas of the Río de la Plata in a climate change scenario

Abstract

The estuary of the Río de la Plata is located in one of the regions with more cyclonic activity in the southern hemisphere. This phenomenon leads to the development of Sudestadas that affect the city of Buenos Aires and its surroundings. Sudestadas are meteorological events characterized by strong southeasterly winds that can cause heavy rains and increase the water level in the estuary. Being a meteorological phenomenon, climate change can influence its conditions and patterns, so in this work we study the changes in the Sudestadas recorded in the city of Buenos Aires from a series of water level hourly heights of 117 years of length. In order to detect possible modifications in the patterns introduced by the effects of climate change, the series is divided into two periods: one between 1905 and 1962, and the other between 1965 and 2021, and the trends of the maximum annual heights observed, the maximum annual heights of Sudestadas, the mean annual duration of the events and the annual number of events are studied. It is found that in all the variables analyzed the trend accelerates when passing from the first period to the second, except in the case of the maximum heights of Sudestadas. In addition, a seasonal and decadal study of the mentioned variables is carried out. The results obtained allow us to observe significant changes in the patterns of Sudestadas.